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Israeli Election Predictions

March 12, 2015

For those who asked, it is permissible to vote for any party that is neither leftists nor Haredite. This leaves Likud, Jewish Home, or Yahad. I recommend Jewish Home because its current chairman actually espouses a policy of national leadership, and because the party is to Likud’s right. Yahad is indeed more right wing, but has no intentions or chances of being a factor in national policy.

1. The Likud, Jewish Home, and Yahad parties will altogether receive 40 or so seats in the Knesset.

2. The Haredite parties will get the usual six or seven, seats, but Shas will decline.

3. Yisrael Beyteinu and Kulanu won’t get much, but they will still be there.

4. Labor may very well be the largest single party, but its core will not be big enough or center enough to attract smaller parties from its right and left into a coalition.

5. Likud will form a coalition with Jewish Home, Yahad, Yisrael Beyteinu, Kulanu, and the Haredite parties. The coalition will have approximately

(120 – 24 seats from Labor – 12 from the Arabs – 4 from Meretz -10 from Yesh Atid =) 70 seats in the 120 seat Knesset.

Last time, I predicted that Likud would form a coalition with Yesh Atid and Jewish Home, but I did not foresee T’nuat Haztipi also joining.

I first wrote this on Wednesday, and wanted to release it on Friday, but then I saw this from Harretz, so I figured that I should not wait for too long to let my predictions become public.

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